After overlooking "Dreamgirls" in the best picture and director races, the Academy seemingly added insult to injury by enforcing its new best song bylaw upon one of the pic's three nominees, "Listen." The rule change came in the wake of 2004 contender "Accidentally in Love" from "Shrek 2," boasting seven songwriters, which caused AMPAS to limited the number of names on a tune submission to three. Given the bulk of their efforts on "Listen," Anne Preven, Scott Cutler and "Dreamgirls" composer Henry Krieger -- perhaps Oscar's most conspicuous nominee -- are credited as songwriters. While Beyonce's involvement with "Listen" entailed fine tuning, her name was left off the song's credits.
But even with the deck seemingly stacked in "Dreamgirl's" favor, the chances of a musical tune winning look daunting: Out of the 32 songs that have been nominated since 1980 from either a musical or musically themed movie (i.e. "The Bodyguard"), only 12 have gone on to win best song. On the other hand, in the cases where a musical held at least three spots in the category (1991's "Beauty in the Beast" and 1994's "The Lion King"), one of its songs went on to take the gold.
Granted, going with the odds on the Oscars is a loser's bet. For every pattern established by the Academy, a mold is also broken. Most recently, "Al Otro Lado Del Rio" from "Motorcycle Diaries" was the first Spanish-language song to ever be honored, while Eminem's "Lose Yourself" from "8 Mile" and Three 6 Mafia's "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from "Hustle & Flow" were unlikely breakthroughs from the rap world.
In this precedent-setting vein, Melissa Etheridge's "I Need to Wake Up" from "An Inconvenient Truth" would appear to be a strong alternative to the "Dreamgirls" cartel since it's the first tune from a docu to ever be recognized.
Then again, the category's perennial nominee, Randy Newman, ("Our Town" from "Cars"), might improve his batting average of one win in 17 music nominations to date.