Models, Mandel and money are at the core of NBC's attempt to climb out of the cellar.
The road to NBC's recovery begins with a goateed germ-phobic comedian, 26 models carrying metal suitcases and a mysterious, silhouetted "banker."
Just as "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" helped ABC climb out of the gutter seven years ago, "Deal or No Deal" -- along with "Sunday Night Football" -- is giving the Peacock a Nielsen boost as it attempts to crawl out of fourth place.
But NBC says it's learned a thing or two about how to preserve the "Deal" franchise: ABC overextended "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire," to the point where the show quickly lost viewers and the network wound up back in that gutter.
"Deal" "is a show you love to have on the schedule, because it circulates so many viewers through the network," says Mitch Metcalf, NBC's exec VP of program planning and scheduling. "It's so darn broad. It plays to kids, to teens, to young adults and old adults. It reaches all income levels."
Last year at its height, "Deal" attracted 18.2 million viewers (for its June finale). Those are strong numbers to use as a promo base for NBC fare -- and even though that number dips to a more modest range against tough competish, it still helps the Peacock stay competitive in killer timeslots.
It's by no means as big as "Millionaire," which at its height regularly pulled in 30 million viewers. And as ABC learned, series with boffo numbers don't always feed into the programs surrounding it. Last week, "Deal's" Monday launch posted a strong 6.0 rating (and 18.1 million viewers) in its final half-hour, leading into the preem of "Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip," which dipped to a still-decent 5.0 in the demo (and 13.4 million viewers).
But think of "Deal" and football as ratings insurance. Even if none of the net's new scripted skeins post mega-numbers straight off the bat -- and as of the middle of last week, none had -- the two easy ratings grabbers pretty much guarantee NBC a year-to-year boost in the numbers.
"We're on our way to becoming competitive again -- and that's all we can really ask for," Metcalf says.
Football was a no-brainer: The built-in audience guaranteed NBC a Sunday boost. But "Deal," which helped NBC win the first night of the season, Sept. 18, arrived in the spring at just the right time for the net.
NBC's dramas had aged and reality entries such as "The Apprentice" had faded. Comedy skeins like "My Name Is Earl" and "The Office" earned Emmys, strong reviews and decent ratings, but they were not yet game-changers.
Soon after "Deal or No Deal" arrived, it became a key player.
It was certainly unlikely. A gameshow. With a hard-to-explain premise. Hosted by Howie Mandel.
"We saw an emptiness in the marketplace," says NBC alternative topper Craig Plestis. "It took a while to see a gameshow we liked. We played hundreds of games. This was truly the most exciting game I played -- it made perfect sense. It just felt right."
NBC's success with "Deal" is particularly sweet because, like so many network victories, it almost didn't happen. Endemol originally set up the show at ABC and the Alphabet even taped a pilot, but ultimately passed on the project.
"In fairness to ABC, the (original) show had a very specific theme and motif that was very retro and maybe not as accessible," says Endemol USA topper David Goldberg. "Whenever you have a second shot, you learn from your mistakes. The show on NBC is a much better show than the one we did for ABC."
"Deal" launched as a special in December, returning for a batch of sweeps events in February; it became a fixture on NBC's schedule in March. It wound up filling several schedule holes, regularly airing three times a week.
But then came the summer. And in an unusual fit of discretion, NBC and Endemol agreed to take the warm months off.
"It would have been nice to have it in the summer, but we really held back and wanted to create some demand by keeping it off the air," Metcalf says. "There's always a temptation to overuse everything that's successful. But we decided this would be the best course."
Goldberg understands the temptation for networks.
"A lot of reality shows are cheaper to produce and you can crank them out faster," he says. "You could produce 100 episodes of 'Deal or No Deal' a year if that was your intention."
NBC opted to premiere its fall season last week with four nights of "Deal"; the net will then settle in with two regularly slated editions, on Monday and Thursday.
And although promises aren't worth much in TV, Peacock execs pledge to stick to no more than two "Deals" a week.
Goldberg says he's all too aware of the consequences of overexposure.
"This show, like any show, will get burnt out if it's overrun," he says. "If I had my way, we'd be airing it no more than two times a week."
And while Goldberg says he's sympathetic to the Peacock's premiere-week "Deal" rollout, he won't be happy if the net keeps trying to cram more shows down viewers throats.
"Both Endemol and NBC agree that wouldn't be an intelligent way of proceeding," Goldberg says. "I think NBC recognizes the difficulties 'Millionaire' had, and I think we've taken the necessary steps to prevent that from happening with 'Deal.'"
Goldberg believes that, if NBC is prudent in how it skeds the show, "Deal" is the type of show "that can last four or five years or more. And in syndication, there's the potential to go on for many, many years, like 'Millionaire' has."
Over at the Peacock, Metcalf says the net "walks the line carefully with this show."
"You don't want to go to the batphone too often and wear it out," he says. "I think you know overuse when you see it and feel it."
In the case of ABC and "Millionaire," that meant rolling out themed editions (including celeb-focused segs) in order to keep the assembly line rolling.
"Deal" has already done some stunts -- like upping the opening week's jackpots -- but overall, Goldberg said he wants to avoid gimmicks.
"I don't think we need to be desperate and overproduce the show," he says. "There's a formula for the show that seems to be working."
Metcalf agrees that too many stunts will signify that "Deal" has already jumped the shark -- or is about to.
"I hesitate to say how long the show will last, because I don't want to jinx it," he says. "I think we just have to respect the show and not overstunt it."
Of course, all gamers eventually age up, and Metcalf says the net will quickly recognize it. "We're just not there yet."
For now, that means NBC can deploy "Deal or No Deal" in tough slots such as Thursdays at 9, where the show has been called into combat duty against "CSI" and "Grey's Anatomy."
Goldberg accepts the fact that "Deal" will have to battle some heavy hitters this season, though clearly he's not relishing the fight.
"Any producer would want their show to have a cushy timeslot where they can have the chance of having the best possible numbers," he says.
Contact Michael Schneider at
mike.schneider@variety.com