Promising bows jostle with faves
Peacock, Fox early favorites this year
Promising newbies like NBC's "Friday Night Lights" and ABC's "The Knights of Prosperity" are joined by returning faves like "House" and "NCIS" as well as the Alphabet's relocated hoofing hit "Dancing With the Stars."
Fox is the dominant net on Tuesdays in the second half of the season with "American Idol," but it's a much more competitive night come fall.
NBC led Tuesday in the fourth quarter last season (18-49 regular-program Nielsens), and along with Fox is the early favorite this year. It's likely, though, that each of the major nets could be within a couple of ticks of each other in 18-49.
Five shows will debut on Tuesday between Sept. 5 and Oct. 17 -- and in an oddity, none will be bowing on the same night. These staggered starts will give each show the best opportunity to open.
Here's a look at Tuesday:
8-9 p.m.
This hour is stacked with good stuff, especially the first two weeks of the season when Fox's "House" airs here instead of 9 o'clock.
Looking at the regular-sked matchups, though, NBC has a shot with "Friday Night Lights" as there's an opening among men 18-49. Skein could also give the CW's "Gilmore Girls" a battle for young women, who will relate to "Friday's" high-school themes.
Sports shows have been a tough sell over the years, but this great-looking series could be the exception, and will benefit from plentiful Peacock pigskin promotion during the net's "Sunday Night Football."
ABC's "Dancing" and CBS crime drama "NCIS," both of which saw their ratings rise last season, will be duking it out for the 40-plus crowd. Look for the Alphabet entry, popular among women of all ages, to carry the hour in 18-49.
Fox's generic "Standoff" appears to be the weak link in the hour, settling for crumbs opposite appointment viewing on the other nets.
9-10 p.m.
Fox's hot "House" is the clear fave in the hour -- winning in all key categories --although a drama logjam could dilute its strength a bit. CBS' male-skewing "The Unit" and NBC's more femme-skewing "Law & Order: Criminal Intent" (on its new night) will do solid numbers but they'll likely be down vs. last year.
Don't rule out ABC's combo of "The Knights of Prosperity" and "Help Me Help You," as these likable new laffers really stand out in an hour otherwise heavy on drama.
"Dancing" isn't the best lead-in for "Knights," the most male of ABC's news comedies, but the rookie should benefit from strong ABC circulation in the night's opening hour. Ted Danson starrer "Help" at 9:30 is a better fit with the "Dancing" aud and will get a direct lead-in for three weeks when the ABC skein airs 90-minute segs.
At the CW, ratings-challenged "Veronica Mars" gets its chance to shine behind "Gilmore," one of the more natural mixings of WB and UPN shows on the new net's sked. Nobody expects "Veronica" to suddenly take off in the ratings, but a respectable gain could help boost visibility for the critically cheered skein.
10-11 p.m.
NBC's "Law & Order: SVU" should remain firmly in control of this hour (14 share in 18-49), getting a lift from its "L&O" sibling as a lead-in. ABC's "Boston Legal," though not a big hit (8 share), delivers a consistent, upscale aud and could benefit from more compatible comedy lead-ins.
The new drama here is CBS heist hour "Smith," starring Ray Liotta and Virginia Madsen. Pilot looks great and is in the right place on the sked for the Eye (behind male-friendly dramas), but will the CBS crime audience opt for a non-procedural drama that glorifies the bad guys?
A wild-card fourth drama is FX's "Nip/Tuck," which should again post solid 5 shares in key male and female demos.
Bottom line
Each of the major nets has a new hour on this night, and the one that clicks could find itself the winner in key demos.
