Biggest nite to watch
ABC hopes to take slice of Thursday pie
NBC, which long dominated the evening, has ceded first place to CBS in recent years, but ABC is looking to make it a legitimate three-way race for the first time in memory.
Every net craves a piece of the Thursday pie because of the cornucopia of coin that movie studios and other advertisers shell out to reach young adults prior to the weekend. And ABC has assured itself a much bigger slice by shifting "Grey's Anatomy" to the night.
No show is hotter than "Grey's," but the medical drama will have its hands full taking on vet CBS crime drama "CSI," television's most-watched scripted skein for each of the past four seasons.
That's just one of several intriguing matchups, though: A pair of promising new dramas will take on NBC's "ER" at 10, and then there's the crazy three-way comedy battle in the 8 o'clock hour, where NBC's "My Name Is Earl" and "The Office" do battle with a pair of newbies each on ABC and Fox.
New net the CW also looks solid with its male-leaning drama pair of "Smallville" and "Supernatural," which worked well last season on the WB.
That leaves Fox, which is a Thursday afterthought as it opted not to shift one of its hits to the crowded night.
Here's a breakdown:
8-9 p.m.
"Survivor" was still a top-10 fixture for CBS last season, and its 13th edition should beat its one-note competish: laffers on ABC, NBC and Fox.
NBC's "Earl" and "Office" are stronger than last year's "Joey" and "Will & Grace," but their numbers will be diluted by the laffer logjam.
"Earl" should dispose of Fox's domestic skein "'Til Death," although the latter will get decent sampling when it bows prior to its slot rivals. ABC's serialized "Big Day" is the one to keep an eye on, though, as its wacky, frenetic pilot leaves you wanting more.
"Earl," which skews male, and wedding-themed "Big Day," which will be heavily female, could co-exist nicely by drawing a sizable 18-34 audience opposite "Survivor," which is more of a 25-54 draw.
"The Office" is the clear choice at 8:30 over Fox's OK "Happy Hour" and ABC's OK "Notes From the Underbelly" -- although it's NBC's own fault that "The Office" isn't a bigger hit by now and hasn't been sampled by more viewers.
9-10 p.m.
Timing is perfect for ABC to shift the third-year "Grey's" opposite seventh-year "CSI," although the latter could enjoy a roughly double lead-in advantage. "CSI" has held off tough reality and comedy shows, but this is its most formidable challenge yet.
"Grey's" should win in adults 18-49 and all key female demos while dominating among the 18-34 crowd. Still, "CSI" will win in total viewers thanks to its advantage in men 35-plus and women 50-plus.
Biggest overlap in audience will be women 35-49, where the dramas combined could command 50% of all viewing during the hour.
Real wildcard is NBC gamer "Deal or No Deal," which will keep the lights on and should outperform last season's "The Apprentice." "Deal" figures to take more viewers away from "CSI" than from "Grey's."
Fox's "The OC" (bowing after baseball) looks to rebound from a soft season, but it won't do any better than a distant fourth-place finish.
10-11 p.m.
"ER" has been NBC's top drama for 12 years, but it could find itself third in its time period if "Shark" on CBS and "Six Degrees" on ABC click -- and both of the rookie dramas mesh well with their lead-ins.
James Woods-led "Shark" should dominate among viewers 35-plus, but that may not translate into slam-dunk success in the key 18-49 and 25-54 demos. Aud for the soapy "Six," on the other hand, should be highly concentrated among young adults, even if its overall viewership is smallish.
Look for a tight three-way 18-49 drama race in the hour.
Bottom line
ABC could challenge for the 18-34 lead and NBC may see its first year-to-year gains in a while, but the Eye still has it overall on Thursday night.
