Net summer bows face a harsh reality
New skeins getting cold reception
In recent years the warm-weather months have given the webs a great opportunity to plant seeds with unscripted projects that were a bit unconventional.
"Dancing With the Stars," "Survivor," "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" and "American Idol" were all summer breakouts that went on to enjoy big success during the regular broadcast season.
But this year, only NBC's "America's Got Talent" has shown any spark, while roughly a dozen duds have come and gone across the dial. Most weeks "Talent" battles with Fox's second-year "So You Think You Can Dance" for the top spot in the rankings in key young-adult demos.
The nets are paying for their lack of a breakout success, too.
Halfway through the summer season, Nielsen reports, the Big Four averaged a 26 share of the adults 18-49 aud (down from 28 a year ago), while ad-supported cable as a whole has risen to a 52 share (from 50 last year).
Fox and NBC are having the strongest summers -- and will carry the most momentum into the fall season -- while CBS is sputtering some but still solid ("Big Brother" is down about 15% year-to-year) and ABC is reeling.
For Fox, both "You Can Dance" (3.8 average rating in adults 18-49 on Wednesday and Thursday) and Monday's "Hell's Kitchen" (3.5) are enjoying bigger ratings than in their initial season last year.
"Dance's" success can be attributed to a smart skedding move that had the talent skein premiere on May 25 -- one night after the huge "American Idol" finale -- instead of its July launch of a year ago.
It's no shocker that 70% of the 18-49 aud for "Dance" is female, but what has been a pleasant surprise for Fox is that younger viewers have discovered it. Overall viewership has risen 17% vs. the same number of weeks last summer, but the adults 18-34 tune-in has grown by 21%.
Despite the success, Fox likely has no plans to cram "Dance" onto its regular-season sked, and will instead continue to use it as a solid summertime draw.
NBC's "America's Got Talent," a "Gong Show"-like skein hosted by Regis Philbin, has averaged a 4.1 rating on Wednesdays but has yet to generate much buzz. Its numbers also have failed to rise during its run, unlike previous summer smashes.
The Peacock has already penciled in a second edition of "Talent" for Sundays at 8 in January, although it doesn't appear strong enough -- at this point anyway -- to take on firstrun fare in the slot such as ABC's "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition."
Beyond "Talent," you have to lower the bar quite a bit before you find any other first-year show that has made any noise at all.
NBC's lottery-winner tale "Windfall," the only new scripted drama on the nets, started out well but is averaging a mere 2.4 rating after seven airings.
Other flameouts include "Game Show Marathon" (2.0) and "Tuesday Night Book Club" on CBS (1.6) and "How to Get the Guy" (1.7) and "Masters of Champion" on ABC (1.6).
These look like Nielsen heavyweights, though, compared to the anemic perf turned in last week by the premiere of "American Idol" wannabe "The One: Making a Music Star" on ABC.
This amalgamation of seemingly every other reality show out there nearly lived down to its name with a 1.1 rating -- bad news for the Alphabet, which was hoping the show could help promote its promising fall newbies.
