A laffers' market
H'wood glad Trib back as syndie player
Chuck Larsen, the TV syndication veteran who runs October Moon Consultants, remembers the chill that seized the major studios' TV divisions two years ago when the Fox station group outbid the Tribune stations for second-cycle reruns of "Everybody Loves Raymond."
It was a classic case of piling on. By adding "Raymond" to the repeats of two other blockbuster comedies, "The Simpsons" and "Seinfeld," the Fox O&Os could lord it over Tribune. Dominance would not be too strong a word, because buyouts and mergers over the years had made Tribune the only TV-group competitor to Fox for hit sitcoms in key cities led by New York, Los Angeles and Chicago.
The angst spreading through Hollywood was primal: Fox could use its control to create a buyer's market, driving the price of sitcoms lower than the Bush administration's current approval ratings.
But one big change took place in August 2005 at the top levels of the Fox O&Os: Lachlan Murdoch gave way to Roger Ailes. And Ailes has made no bones about wanting to spend station money, not just on repeats but also on original programming -- news as well as entertainment.
The first two tests of the post-"Raymond" confrontation between Fox and Tribune occurred last month, with the sitcom sales of Warner Bros.' "Two and a Half Men" and Twentieth TV's "Family Guy." When the cutthroat maneuvering came to an end, Tribune had snagged them both, despite spirited offers by Fox.
"Tribune stepped up in a big way," says Larsen, "and leveled the playing field with Fox."
"The sigh of relief could be heard all over Los Angeles," adds Bill Carroll, VP and director of programming for Katz, which represents hundreds of TV stations.
Four major studios have dumped their Prozac: Twentieth TV, which distributes "My Name Is Earl"; NBC Universal, with "The Office"; Warner Bros., with "The New Adventures of Old Christine"; and Paramount, with "Everybody Hates Chris."
Fox and Tribune are not yet banging on these studios' doors for any of the four comedies, but the consensus is that the 2006-07 network-primetime season will provide an acid test of their syndie potential.
Any or all of the four could stumble, which is why Marc Schacher, VP of programming and development for Tribune, says he sprang for "Two and a Half Men" and "Family Guy."
"High-impact sitcoms are just not as plentiful as they used to be," Schacher says.
And even reruns of hit comedies don't stay on top for as many years as they used to. "I passed on 'Everybody Loves Raymond' in New York, Los Angeles and Chicago," Schacher points out, "because I though the price was ridiculous for the second cycle. It made no business sense."
Schacher's worry about longevity led to his capping the "Family Guy" deal at four years, a highly unusual concession by distrib Twentieth. Most sitcom deals start at four years; when the network renews the show's original episodes for another year, the syndicator tacks nine additional months onto the station's contract. Some of these syndie deals can stretch to eight or nine years, depending on how often broadcast networks renew the sitcom.
Mindful of their unhealthy dependence on sitcom reruns, both Tribune and Fox are hard at work trying to develop firstrun programming for the key 6-8 p.m. time period.
Ailes and Schacher are looking at all forms of syndicated programming, from gameshows and talkshows to courtshows and newsmagazines.
Because of his news background, Ailes favors informational shows, while Schacher's career in programming inclines him toward entertainment series.
So far, sitcom distributors have nothing to worry about. Tribune has yet to come up with anything of note. Fox took a stab last year with a 2005 version of the 1980s tabloid-magazine series "A Current Affair."
Fox canceled "Current Affair" because of low ratings, but its replacement show, the newsmagazine "Geraldo at Large," which kicked off in October, is doing even worse. In 39 metered markets for the May sweep, "Geraldo" managed only a 2.3 rating, down 23% from its lead-in and down 4% from the time periods a year ago in May (many of which were playing "Current Affair").
But Fox is negotiating for another firstrun series to slap into the time period in fall 2007. Distributed by Debmar-Mercury, and created and produced by Tyler Perry, it's called "House of Payne"; yes, it's a domestic sitcom -- about a curmudgeonly fire chief who presides over a household consisting of his wife, son and grandchildren.
At least it's not a rerun.
