Collision course
Tentpole tactics put to the test
A bevy of franchise sequels and star vehicles -- "Mission: Impossible 3," "X-Men 3," "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," "Superman Returns," "The Da Vinci Code" and "Click" -- are giving studios plenty to crow about.
But if these titles don't cause the box office to rebound from last season's 9% decline, the movie industry might need to rethink its business model. And exhibitors are praying the business model still works.
This summer's crowded calendar features a tentpole release nearly every week from early May through the Fourth of July. With so much at stake, the studios may be erecting roadblocks to their own success.
The calendar congestion makes it difficult for the big films to breathe. Each has just a short window to make its money before another juggernaut enters the scene, which makes it hard for a film to find its legs.
The schedule so far has several same-frame collisions: toon "Over the Hedge" and "Da Vinci Code" both bow May 19. Then on June 2 are two comedies, as Universal's Vince Vaughn-Jennifer Aniston romantic comedy "The Break-Up" takes on Paramount's Jack Black vehicle "Nacho Libre."
Each is targeted to distinct auds. But carving up the market too thinly diminishes the chances that these pics will be able to cross over and become breakout hits. For instance, DreamWorks' CGI pics like "Shrek" and "Shark Tale" became blockbusters by winning families and then branching out to pick up some of the teen and young-adult aud.
It's not clear if these films will have the time to do that. While "Break-Up" may end up skewing older and more female than "Nacho," both pics were likely greenlit in the hope they could cross gender and age lines.
On paper, things look good. Three pics are sequels to films that grossed more than $200 million; there are at least six more for which $200 million looks well within reach. And that's not even allowing for surprise breakouts like last year's "Wedding Crashers."
That contrasts with summer 2005, when only five pics grossed more than $200 million. The big titles held their own; the problem was that there weren't enough of them. "Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith" was the only sequel to a $200 million grosser. That was a big drop from summer 2004, when there were three such pics: "Shrek 2," "Spider-Man 2" and "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban."
"You can never count on sure things, but this year there are more sure things than ever before," says Walt Disney chief creative officer Oren Aviv. "There's always a lot of pressure, but there's more pressure perceived when you've had a year of difficulties or a year where technology and platforms and windows are all being questioned."
One problem for marketers last year was that the audience seemed to be getting wise to the difference between a successful tentpole-wannabe and those that couldn't cut it. Non-sequels like "Batman Begins" and "Mr. and Mrs. Smith" worked. But no amount of marketing and positioning could lift other pics -- like "XXX: State of the Union," "Kingdom of Heaven" and "Herbie: Fully Loaded" -- beyond their core auds.
Nobody knew what to expect from "Bewitched," "Cinderella Man" and "Stealth." In contrast this year, awareness of "M:I3," "Da Vinci Code" and "Superman" was running high well before the first TV teasers hit.
The plenitude of big pics, though, is creating some concern that it may be possible to have too much of a good thing.
"The trouble is there are only so many prime weekends in the summer," says Sony marketing chair Jeff Blake. "It comes down to about 12, maybe 14 with the first two weeks of August. When you look at the way the summer kicks off with a tremendous lineup, everyone is going to have to be on their best game."
Kicking off the summer May 5, Paramount bows "Mission: Impossible 3," followed by Warners' "Poseidon" the next weekend, then both Sony's "The Da Vinci Code" and DreamWorks Animation's "Over the Hedge" on May 19 and finally Fox's "X-Men 3" over Memorial Day.
Of course, several caveats apply: Studios can (and likely will) rejigger their skeds before the season starts. But with such a jam-packed sked, options are limited and missing an opening can be nearly fatal.
The other warning: Every summer's schedule looks more impressive in the winter while studios are still optimistic. But not every hoped-for blockbuster can deliver.
Overseas concerns have led to a bookending of the summer. The World Cup, to be held in Germany from June 9-July 9, is expected to put a huge damper on attendance in soccer-crazed territories. Still, the tentpole-per-week pace continues through much of the summer.
Over the June 9 frame, Disney and Pixar start "Cars," followed the next weekend by U's "The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift." Sony's "Click" hits on June 23, with Warners' "Superman Returns" on June 30 (with July 4 that Tuesday, it will be a five-day frame), followed by Disney's "Pirates of the Caribbean" sequel on July 7.
The late-July sked is littered with faceoffs. On July 14, moviegoers will have their pick of the Wilson brothers: Owen stars with Kate Hudson and Matt Dillon in "You, Me and Dupree" while Luke is up with Uma Thurman in Ivan Reitman's "My Super Ex-Girlfriend."
The following weekend M. Night Shyamalan, whose PG-13 thrillers tend to play broader than the typical horror pic, will debut "The Lady in the Water." The same weekend, Sony introduces its spooky CGI family pic "Monster House," exec produced by Steven Spielberg and Robert Zemeckis.
Two weeks later, on Aug. 4, Warners releases its own CGI entrant, "The Ant Bully," which has the pedigree of Tom Hanks as producer, going up against Sony's NASCAR laffer "Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby," starring Will Ferrell.
On the following weekend, no less than four high-profile pics are skedded: Warners' Nicole Kidman alien thriller "The Visiting"; Par's untitled Oliver Stone-helmed World Trade Center project, starring Nicolas Cage; Revolution and Sony's Tim Allen kidpic "Zoom"; and Ul's college admission comedy "Accepted."
John Fithian, prexy of the National Assn. of Theater Owners, says the crush of big titles in such a short span is a cause for exhib concern. "I wonder how well we'll do with legs when we put big pictures that close together. I've often thought if the studios took one or two of those pictures and put them elsewhere in the summer, or the rest of the calendar, we might be better off."
But studio execs retort that there are no more clear corridors. Take "Over the Hedge," which is facing down "Da Vinci Code." Move it earlier and it can challenge either "Mission: Impossible" or "Poseidon." Try to move later and it's up against "X-Men" over Memorial Day or, opening the next weekend, perilously close to Pixar's CGI "Cars."
Par prexy Rob Moore points out that last year, "Madagascar" had no trouble opening against Adam Sandler's "The Longest Yard" during the second weekend of "Sith."
"It feels like if you're not looking at the exact same audience, you can get a big number," he says.
In some ways it's the exhibs with more at stake this year. Peter Brown, chief exec of AMC, which recently merged with Loews to create the second largest chain in the country behind Regal, said he's optimistic. "I think this year we're going to be up," he said.
But if the summer doesn't pan out like the industry expects it to, the studios will have to rethink their biz plan, including their reliance on the theatrical window to drive ancillary revenues. That possibility makes theater owners feel like they are fighting for survival.
"The only issue that could seriously damage the cinema business is the collapse of the theatrical window," Fithian says. "That's the bad news. The good news is that I don't think it's going to happen."
In addition to the strong product, he says, his member companies have been looking at the major consumer complaints from last year -- rude behavior in theaters, onscreen advertising and rising prices -- and are mulling industrywide efforts to boost admissions.
For instance, Fithian said chains are likely to have more ushers in auditoriums to shush people blabbing on their cell phones. They've also been working with Screenvision and National Cinemedia, the two largest purveyors of pre-show ads, to improve the mix of ads and content so auds don't feel they're being forced to watch 20 minutes of TV spots.
"I don't think we've explained the value of going to the movies well," Fithian says. "Maybe it's a PR effort, maybe it's a paid advertising campaign -- a 'Got Milk?' for the movie industry."
A PR blitz may help, but what the industry needs is a healthy season to show that the present system of spending hundreds of millions of dollars to make and market movies is still a profitable formula.
