Studios in scrimmage

Tentpoles avoid World Cup competish

By DAVE MCNARY

Take the distraction of the Super Bowl into every major moviegoing territory outside the United States and multiply it by a month. That's the nightmarish scenario facing studios as they prep for soccer's World Cup -- a monthlong sports orgy that's going to rivet most of the planet's non-American males to their TV sets from June 9 to July 9.

It's a far more daunting outlook than the last World Cup, hosted by Japan and Korea. Germany's the host this time, creating a potential black hole for moviegoing in many key markets. "The problem wasn't the same in 2002, because most of those games were telecast during the day in Europe," notes UIP prexy Andrew Cripps. "Now the primetime games will be in primetime in Europe."

Though soccer pales next to football and baseball for many Americans, studios are well aware of what they're up against. They've constructed a unique summer schedule with one key imperative -- don't compete directly against the World Cup in overseas markets.

That's led to a schedule that's heavily front-loaded with tentpoles in May in the form of "Mission: Impossible 3," "The Da Vinci Code" and "X-Men 3."

June is dominated by counter-programming aimed at women, kids and families, such as "Over the Hedge," "Cars" and "The Break-Up."

Finally, after nearly a month of soccer mania, two more tentpoles -- "Superman Returns" and "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" -- will launch as Cup play goes into the final frenetic phase. But even those seemingly surefire entries will hold back in key markets like France, Germany and Spain until after July 9.

Being forced to dance around the World Cup with megabudget tentpoles isn't the ideal scenario for studios. Hollywood's still smarting from last year's downbeat performance; 2006 has opened with its best hope, "King Kong," edging past $300 million -- significantly less than its outsized expectations.

"We're just having to work around the Cup as best as possible," admits Craig Dehmel, Fox Intl.'s director of sales and strategy. "We had a similar situation two years ago when we had to delay 'I Robot' until the European soccer championships were over."

As a result, only four summer films will go day-and-date -- "Mission: Impossible 3," "The DaVinci Code," "X-Men 3" and "The Omen 666." "The Omen" remake's an oddball entry that wouldn't ordinarily see a worldwide opening -- except that its launch will be on Tuesday, June 6, to take full advantage of the "666" gimmick.

"Our people have got a challenge opening 'X-Men 3' and then 'The Omen 666' less than two weeks later," Dehmel admits. "But exhibitors are still going to need product in that window so we think we'll be OK."

Even a seemingly surefire tentpole like "Poseidon" is mostly sailing away from the World Cup. Warner's is gambling on a few launches -- June 14 in France and June 23 in Russia and Mexico -- but will wait in most other major markets until after July 9.

Business in Europe took a major hit in 1998 when France hosted the World Cup and won a memorable final in overtime. Eight years later, soccer fans will have the distractions of even more Cup-related programming.

It's not hopeless, of course, with studio execs bravely pointing out that the World Cup won't be on 24/7 everywhere, although it may seem that way. UIP believes it can actually taken advantage of the Cup frenzy with "The Break-Up," which opens in the U.S. on June 2 with foreign dates based on the availability of stars Jennifer Aniston and Vince Vaughn.

"Obviously, men are going to be watching for three or four nights in a row, but when they stop, they'll be a little more likely to go see what their wife or girlfriend wants to go see," notes David Kosse, Universal's prexy of international marketing and distribution. "We think 'The Break-Up' is going to be perfect counterprogramming. We're going very wide and we don't see it as a major challenge to market."

If nothing else, having to work around the World Cup should provide some clarity to the strategy of day and date via the results of "Mission: Impossible III," "Da Vinci Code" and "X-Men 3." The benefit of a massive worldwide campaign culminating in a one-day worldwide launch paid off nicely last year for "War of the Worlds" and "Star Wars: Episode III."

But the tactic eliminates the option of fine-tuning a push for a particular market, such as launching during a holiday period ... or waiting until World Cup fever dies down.