NFL growth needs new game plan
League should consider more flexible scheduling
And there's little the league can do about it right now.
There's no sports league more adept at squeezing the maximum Nielsens out of its product than the NFL, but going forward, it must consider more flexible scheduling to ensure it's not saddled with the kind of unappetizing matchups it has in this season's homestretch.
It's been a great fall overall for the NFL, as each of the league's television entities -- ABC, CBS, Fox and ESPN -- is either flat or up in rating vs. last year.
In its final season on ABC, "Monday Night Football" has rallied from a modest start to outperform the 2004 season at the same point by 5%.
It especially shined in November, when two games featuring the Indianapolis Colts (Nov. 7 vs. the New England Patriots and Nov. 28 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers) logged the franchise's best Nielsen numbers in five years, drawing 22 million viewers.
The NFL has seen the surprising rise of teams in big markets, like the New York Giants and Chicago Bears, and the national popularity of one of its smaller-market teams, the Colts, as they bid to become the first unbeaten team in 33 years.
Also, the league has its strongest West Coast representation in years, with the Seattle Seahawks and San Diego Chargers.
Those are the teams fans want to see in primetime on Sunday and Monday -- not the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints and New York Jets. These once-promising teams are among the league's laughingstocks this season, yet are locked into upcoming Sunday and Monday night appearances.
Looking ahead to next year, the NFL has smartly included flexible skedding in its deal with NBC, which will air the Sunday night games: League will be able to move an afternoon game to the evening if its skedded matchup pits two losing teams.
But it also needs to figure a way to give ESPN, the Monday night net beginning next year, games with playoff implications down the stretch. In its final season, ABC is saddled with a pair of games (Packers-Ravens and Patriots-Jets) that figure to have zero impact on playoff seedings, and should get sacked in ratings.
Fox and CBS, which carry games on Sunday afternoon, have a larger slate of matchups to choose from and often benefit from the league's sked changes to avoid unappealing matchups. The NFL has made four changes this season in the skedding of its 4:15 p.m. ET spotlight game, giving exposure to worthy teams like the Seahawks, the Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Redskins at the expense of glamour teams that have fallen on hard times.
One problem in changing gametimes is that the league doesn't want to inconvenience fans who have bought tickets. And it's one thing to push a gametime back or forward a few hours on Sunday, but it's more of an inconvenience to shift a game from Sunday to Monday or vice versa.
One idea would be for the league to hold off on scheduling the final six Monday night games until the midway point of the season, still giving fans attending the games enough notice of a time change.
This season, for example, it was clear by midseason that the Packers, Jets and Saints were lousy, yet each was skedded for at least two late primetime games.
The NFL is hotter than ever this season, but it's a shame its momentum will be slowed by a primetime sked that was set in stone in April.
