Comfort food trumps caviar on program menu
Scan the Nielsen standings for dramatic programs, however, and the rookie of the year is none other than "Criminal Minds" -- yet another CBS crime procedural, offering what amounts to a serial killer of the week.
This is bad news for the snobbiest quadrant of the critical establishment, as well as network execs who like being thanked during Emmy and Golden Globe telecasts. For as much as we live in a world where everyone would like to be a gourmand dishing out champagne wishes and caviar dreams, the truth is that meat and potatoes have a way of saving a network's bacon.
How this will translate into next season's development remains to be seen, but when ABC's critically harpooned Freddie Prinze Jr. sitcom "Freddie" has gained a full-season pickup while Emmy winner "Arrested Development" gets benched, the wages of mediocrity, if not exactly sin, appear to be rising.
So much for the mini-explosion triggered by "Lost," "Desperate Housewives" and "Grey's Anatomy" that emboldened nets to go the serialized route, even if that meant reengineering clones of "Lost's" spooky concept.
Mastering "Lost's" high-wire act is pretty damn hard. And while all three of those ABC sophomore dramas continue to attract stellar ratings, this fall's new contenders merit a big "thumbs sideways," both artistically and commercially.
OK, so Fox's "Prison Break" has found a toehold in the "24" vein, and both "alien monsters in the water" concepts, ABC's "Invasion" and NBC's "Surface," have managed to tread water. Looking beyond the tepid ratings, those sci-fi series have disappointed creatively, with the former suffering periodic bouts of the stupids and the latter experiencing a serious case of the borings.
By contrast, "Criminal Minds" -- a complete afterthought among critics -- has surprisingly held its own opposite "Lost," giving CBS the makings of a solid Wednesday night. Moreover, the lightly regarded "NCIS" (that stands for Naval Criminal Investigative Service, but you might as well call it "CSI: Navy") has begun dominating its Tuesday hour, posting series-record ratings.
Finally, there's CBS' Friday lineup, where producer Jerry Bruckheimer's legal crime hour "Close to Home" has rebounded from a shaky start on Tuesdays to find a cozy nest between "The Ghost Whisperer" and "Numbers" -- yes, another procedural.
Suddenly, CBS' class of '05 development looks like a bumper crop, even if "Threshold" -- the most intriguing of this season's new aliens-among-us dramas -- doesn't deliver in "Home's" previous spaceport. Moreover, the top-rated net is achieving success by devoting fully half its primetime roster to crime, burying victims faster than a Hitchcock film festival.
Of course, the surest ticket to Development Disaster (right next to Typhoon Lagoon among thrill-park rides) involves thinking oneself capable of deciphering box office and ratings in pursuit of larger truth. Journalists, inevitably, attempt to discern how such data reflect the public consciousness, but pity the foolish programmer who decides, "By golly, we need more psychic detective domestic dramas right now."
Do viewers covet comfort-food and security this long after Sept. 11? Maybe, but that doesn't explain all the cheeseburgers wolfed down before that infamous date. Has the ardor for serialized narrative cooled? Not for existing hits, certainly, but the standard for committing to new programs remains high -- especially when they let the plot bob aimlessly in place, as opposed to driving it forward week to week.
Amid the apparent chaos, though, a few signposts seem pretty clear. People don't tire quickly of that which they like, which explains why no Warner Bros. exec is saying, "Sure, we could do a fifth 'Harry Potter' movie, but we'd really like to funnel those resources toward more challenging concepts." (If you see a quote like that, the company's recent cost-cutting measures no longer cover prescription drugs.)
So is there any formula for success? If history is any indication, it's as simple as a lot of what the audience wants, garnished with a little of what you hope that it wants.
Admittedly, that's generally not the most exciting artistic approach or the quickest path to "10 best" lists and golden statuettes. Yet as former NBC West Coast chief Don Ohlmeyer was fond of saying, execs can be motivated either by a desire to be popular and have critics sing their praises or by desperately wanting to win, and the two are mutually exclusive.
Translating that into the prevailing language of primetime, it's strictly a matter of what sort of gold and which kind of top-10 list provides the best defense against becoming another chalk outline.
