Webs far from 'Idol'
'House,' 'Earl,' 'Supernatural' taking on Tuesdays
Sure enough, five newbies, including some of the season's highest-profile entries, will bow on this night prior to the arrival of the tsunami that is "Idol."
Fox starts the season with a pair of dramas, including the hot "House." By mid-January, however, the music talent show will comprise more than half of Fox's Tuesday lineup and significantly affect other nets through May.
NBC, last year's fourth-quarter leader in Nielsen's 18-49 ratings thanks to unscripted hit "The Biggest Loser," leads with that reality skein at 8.
Peacock is pinning its comedy hopes on "My Name Is Earl," which follows "Loser" at 9. In the same hour, ABC bows political drama "Commander-in-Chief" and the WB has its best-looking fall skein in drama "Supernatural."
CBS, the most improved net on Tuesdays last season, adds promising drama "Close to Home" at 10.
Here's a look at the night:
8-9 p.m.
"Biggest Loser," the top-rated new reality show of last season in 18-49, should stay on top, but CBS' growing military crime drama "NCIS" will be competitive while ruling in adults 25-54 and total viewers.
New forensics crime drama "Bones" is a changeup for Fox, which has gone with reality here for most of the past year. "Bones" could chip into the aud for "NCIS," but anything above a 7 share seems unlikely.
Coming off a great season creatively, the Frog's "Gilmore Girls" is poised for a strong start this fall, cleaning up among young femmes.
ABC has shifted laffers "According to Jim" and "Rodney" here, where they should do OK -- although they're hardly the right lead-in for the net's dramas.
9-10 p.m.
This is the fall's most intriguing hour, as three new dramas and one new comedy oppose hits "House" on Fox and "Amazing Race" on CBS.
In an interesting twist, the two oldest-skewing major nets (CBS and NBC) will offer up what should be their youngest hours, while the two younger-skewing nets (Fox and ABC) play older with adult dramas.
Geena Davis starrer "Commander-in-Chief" is a solid drama whose pilot mixes both political and familial elements without being too earnest. It will have a better shot at attracting a femme following starting with its second episode, when Fox switches from "House" to baseball for October.
"House," meanwhile, gives Fox a great chance for titanic Tuesday growth, as the medical mystery floundered last fall before taking off behind "American Idol" in winter. It's hardly a coattails hit, though, creating its own buzz and loyal audience.
Like ABC's "Commander," NBC's "My Name Is Earl" could shake things up; pilot was likable enough and certainly more original than most recent Peacock laffers. It also will get a big push from NBC -- and most critics -- and is well-positioned on the sked, behind "Loser" and facing no comedy competish. It may also pick up some "According to Jim" viewers as ABC abandons laffers here.
The WB's "Supernatural," although tonally much different than its "Gilmore Girls" lead-in, should work very well in this hour, holding much of the "GG" femme aud while adding some males.
But UPN will be swimming upstream with its new soap "Sex, Love and Secrets."
10 to 11 p.m.
Three femme-friendly dramas do battle here, where NBC's "Law & Order: SVU" has won the last two years and remains the slot favorite.
"Boston Legal," a fragile frosh success following "Desperate Housewives," will be dependent on a strong lead-in. If it gets it, ABC could be sitting pretty with a nice upscale block; but if "Commander" craters, the case could unravel for "Legal," too.
Jerry Bruckheimer's "Close to Home," a look at crime in the suburbs, should pick up much of the Eye's "Judging Amy" aud while keeping more of its "Amazing Race" lead-in. "NCIS" and "Amazing Race" draw sizable male auds, but this entry should skew very female.
Bottom line
Even if "Earl" is a middling performer, NBC will be the net to beat on Tuesdays this fall, with CBS a solid second and Fox the most improved. The WB should also have a strong night, and ABC is a dark horse.
Next week: Sunday
