CBS eyes ad upfront pot of gold

Web has eye on key demos

By RICK KISSELL

HOLLYWOOD -- It's been two seasons since CBS became primetime's most-watched network on Thursdays, but this year, the Eye is also lashing its rivals in key demos.

That has CBS rubbing its palms in anticipation of possibly unseating NBC as the network commanding the most upfront coin from advertisers.

And why not? CBS, also with pockets of strength Monday through Wednesday, has taken a stranglehold of the Thursday ratings race this season while emerging as the strongest broadcaster overall.

While NBC's Thursday still includes some of the most upscale shows on television ("The Apprentice," "Will & Grace"), the Peacock has relinquished its decades-long hold on the night.

It's not that CBS has improved this year -- ratings are stable as its potent lineup has remained intact for three seasons -- but NBC has fallen apart.

"Joey" is a pale imitation of "Friends," "The Apprentice" is doing much less Nielsen biz, and "ER" -- still the net's No. 1 program -- is no longer the medical drama everyone's talking about.

According to Nielsen data comparing adults 18-49 averages through the first 30 weeks of the season, CBS has overtaken NBC by 15% (6.9 to 6.0) after trailing the Peacock by 18%, 20% and 53% respectively over the previous three years. The Eye's advantage mushrooms to 26% in adults 25-54, a category NBC won by a narrow margin last season.

CBS also tops NBC comfortably in teens (3.2 to 2.0), and its domination in total viewers is such that the Eye (20 million) now tops both NBC (13.1 million) and ABC (6.8 million) combined.

The only age breakdown that still favors NBC is adults 18-34, but its 8% advantage here (5.5 vs. 5.1) is a far cry from the 88% cushion it enjoyed three seasons ago or even the 61% edge it held last year in the final season of laffer "Friends" (7.9 to 4.9).

It's the departure of "Friends" that sent NBC's sked reeling, even though net execs had confidently predicted last spring two editions of "The Apprentice" would make up the difference.

With anchor "Joey" down 51% from "Friends" (4.4 vs. 8.9) and "Will & Grace" off 38% from its year-ago average (4.6 vs. 7.4), "The Apprentice 3" has declined 36% from its inaugural edition that aired at this time last year (6.5 vs. 10.1).

That's made it tough on 11-year vet "ER," which has slid 19% year-to-year (7.1 vs. 8.8) and no longer dominates CBS timeslot rival "Without a Trace," which is up 13% (6.1 vs. 5.4) and regularly wins the hour comfortably in total viewers. Still, give "ER" credit for holding up this well given its longevity and weaker lead-ins.

And at CBS, in addition to a growing "Trace," both "Survivor" (8.0 rating, down 5%) and "CSI" (9.1 rating, flat) remain remarkably consistent.

Looking ahead, one of the most anticipated sked moves for the coming season is what NBC does on Thursday.

Net could remain status quo, but that likely means more erosion for "Will," "The Apprentice" and "ER" while hoping "Joey" somehow makes more friends in its second season. Taking that road, the Peacock in a couple of years likely would be left starting from scratch on the week's most important night.

Instead, NBC should make the bold move of shifting "The Apprentice" to another night (possibly Wednesday) and reverting to a four-comedy sked on Thursday. A retooled "Joey" (think new supporting cast and writers), "Will & Grace" and the net's two best new comedies (or maybe shift "The Office" from Tuesday) is a sked that makes the most sense for a net looking for the next big hits.

Sure, overall ratings are likely to decline without "The Apprentice," but NBC is now reduced to No. 2 on Thursday anyway and will only regain its status as the night's leader if it rediscovers its comic voice.

For its part, don't expect any Thursday shakeups at CBS. Although it's extremely rare for an entertainment lineup to remain intact for three years, let alone four, there's no reason to expect CBS to risk messing with its winning hand.

Sure, the public's infatuation with "Survivor" or murder mysteries could fade, but the Eye's Thursday is now a three-pronged monster, and it will be tough to behead all three at the same time.