Inside Move: Showbiz's swing shift
Will Hollywood's stumping have an impact on voters?
Giving voice to the skepticism of many grizzled political veterans, former reporter Jon Margolis argued on the New York Times Op-Ed page recently, "Let's face it, the number of times a movie has altered public opinion on any issue can be counted on the fingers of no hand."
He may be right, but arriving the same day out of Pennsylvania was evidence that pop culture is, in fact, swaying some votes.
The Keystone Poll, a nonpartisan product of the Franklin & Marshall University's Center for Opinion Research, found John Kerry leading George W. Bush in that critical battleground state by a six-point margin, 48% to 42%.
The news for showbizzers comes in the poll's follow-up queries.
Among the questions asked of the respondents was whether they listened to Howard Stern, who has been bashing Bush on a regular basis, or seen Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11."
Of the 8% of all registered voters who said they listened to Stern, 28% said they were likely to heed his call to vote for Kerry as the best way to end the bleeps that mar his broadcast these days.
Terry Madonna, the political science prof who directs the poll, calculates that support translates to a two-point advantage for Kerry.
Similarly, of the 11% of voters who said they had seen "Fahrenheit," 39% said the doc made them less likely to vote for Bush. Madonna calculates that as a four-point loss for the president.
"I'm not suggesting some huge political shift," Madonna says. "But you can't say they're having no influence."
That's because, Madonna says, the race in Pennsylvania and nationally has been so tight for so long, and is likely to remain so through Election Day. "You have this unusual election in that we have the smallest number of undecided voters in decades," he says.
In close contests, "Little things make a big difference."
