The best-picture Oscar nominees make a unique quintet -- all five were released in the final two weeks of December.
Box office prospects would therefore seem to be ripe. The period between noms and the awards is when most of the "bounce" occurs, and all the better for films that are newer to the marketplace.
But the current crop may not have it so easy. In fact, one can easily raise the following questions:
- Does any upside remain for "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers"?
- Can a Holocaust drama like "The Pianist" gain a significant new foothold?
- How high can "Gangs of New York" climb?
"Chicago," as the most-nominated pic with 13, will get a wave of publicity, of course. Miramax seemed to have been betting heavily on an Oscar lift and will therefore add only a previously planned 250 new screens for the coming Presidents Day weekend. That will take it to about 2,100 venues, from 1,841 a week earlier. Its domestic cume stands at $64 million.
The success of "Gangs," meanwhile, validates Miramax's strategy of going wide and then pulling back before this weekend's return to additional theaters. It should reach about 1,500 playdates, up from 968 last weekend. Passing $70 million domestically last weekend was impressive enough for a violent, nearly three-hour epic, and now the film gets five more weeks in the spotlight.
Paramount's "The Hours" has also been an established awards magnet, helping it rack up $22 million in a platform release. The studio was already planning to broaden the critically lauded drama into wide release this weekend before it collected nine noms. Producer Scott Rudin confirmed a target of 1,000 playdates this weekend, almost double its current level of 549.
An array of high-profile noms for Holocaust drama "Pianist" could help Focus Features overcome exhib resistance to its challenging content. The film's domestic tally of $9 million thus far is the lowest for any best-pic nominee since "Secrets & Lies" in 1997.
Focus hopes to boost "The Pianist" to more than 500 playdates by Friday, probably 100 more than might have been possible without the pic's seven Oscar noms.
"It's wonderful," Focus distrib prexy Jack Foley said. "We're in a really competitive moment with a lot of other wonderful films, and it's just terrific."
With just four noms, "Far From Heaven" was not quite as stimulating for Focus. In fact, its November release may have been a hindrance in this back-ended 2002-03 campaign. The pic has reached about $14 million domestically to date.
Meanwhile, none of the top four nom-getters are guaranteed a big boost in screen count because of the Oscar noms -- and distribs say that's OK. None has the broader appeal of a "Gladiator" or even "A Beautiful Mind."
"We're all going for the same over-35 age group," a top exec says of the films that are not the easiest viewing experiences. "So, that's why we're proceeding very carefully."
New Line's "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" is the only one of the five best-pic nominees that originally opened in saturation-level release. With $320 million in domestic B.O. already rung up since its December bow, the studio won't be adding playdates.
Likewise with distrib's "About Schmidt," which was a best-pic long shot but attracted a best-actor nom for Jack Nicholson and supporting actress nom for Kathy Bates.
There are upside surprises beyond the big names, naturally.
Pedro Almodovar's startling nom for best director for "Talk to Her," which also scored one for screenplay, will help Sony Pictures Classics go north of 200 runs by Friday. The platforming pic was in 105 locations last weekend and skedded for another boost next frame. SPC distrib maven Tom Prassis says noms notoriety should be good for 50-100 more engagements than might have been mounted otherwise.
"We're to keep adding more as we go along where it makes sense," Prassis said. "It's still an foreign art film, but now that it has some major awards we're going to try to cross over where we can."
Those and other distribs will be hopeful for a similarly great B.O. weekend, but there's both reason for optimism and fear over the coming frame.
The Presidents Day holiday effectively lengthens the moviegoing weekend by a day, but Fox is expected to dominate much of the action as it bows comic-based live-actioner "Daredevil" with late-night shows on Thursday. Disney also unspools family toon "Jungle Book 2."
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