Fox failing to steal hen house
Mid-season checkup: second in a series
After using a parade of strong new series and a hot reality skein to move into NBC's ratings echelon last season, Fox has seen some of its former tentpoles collapse around it during a surprisingly soft 2001-02 campaign.
Rather than battling for the season lead in the coveted adults 18-49 demo -- and looking to the Super Bowl to possibly put it ahead -- Fox finds itself lumped together in a second-place tie with ABC and CBS (4.0 rating/11 share), according to Nielsen.
Net, which had a herky-jerky start to the season thanks to postseason baseball, didn't launch half of its series until November. When things unwrapped, they also unraveled for vet hours "Ally McBeal" and "X-Files," which are down 28% and 39% respectively vs. a year ago in adults 18-49.
Also, critically acclaimed new series "Undeclared" and "24" have underwhelmed, and "Temptation Island" has seduced few the second time around.
Net's series are down by double-digit percentages on six nights (all but Wednesday) despite coming up with "Bernie Mac," one of the season's few genuine new hits.
Still, Fox entered midseason in third place the previous two years, so its second-place standing can't be all that disappointing.
Here's a closer look:
Strengths
Fox's success record with new, critically acclaimed series is better than any other net in recent years, with "Malcolm in the Middle," "Boston Public" and now "Bernie Mac" likely to have spots on its sked for many years.
This, combined with the net's mostly kept promise to steer clear of the tawdriest of reality programming (let's pretend "The Chamber" never made it to air), has gone a long way in changing the net's image in advertiser and critics circles.
Web remains the network of choice for young males -- leading among men 18-49 by 2 shares, men 18-34 by 3 shares and male teens by 5 shares -- and will likely again win the season in total teens and people 12-34.
It also has found a clear, distinctive comedy voice that has connected with auds in recent years -- after coming up empty at the live-action laffer well for years.
Weaknesses
Similar to ABC, Fox desperately needs a top-10 show. Net's top draw this season in adults 18-49 is "The Simpsons," and even it is down more than 20% year-to-year.
There are only so many hours on the net's sked, but Fox doesn't seem to be making very good use of "Dark Angel" and "Titus," two series that often won their time periods in 18-49 on Tuesdays last season but have struggled on new nights this year. Also, how can "24" -- a show that's older-skewing and more upscale than other Fox fare -- even sniff at its maximum ratings potential in the same hour as "Frasier" and "NYPD Blue"?
Somewhere along the way, the net lost its ability to speak to women. Its adults 18-49 audience is more than 55% male (significantly higher than the other nets), making it tough for shows like "Ally McBeal" to flourish.
Bottom line
Net may not be knocking down NBC's door as many had predicted, but its hitmaking propensity makes it a threat in upcoming years.
Shows like "Boston Public" and "Bernie Mac," which do well among both Fox's core aud (males 12-34) and young women, are the way to go.
