Runner-up race gets even closer
CBS, Fox and ABC vie for position
At least for second place.
Likely headed for the closest finish ever in the key demo of adults 18-49, CBS, Fox and ABC began January in a virtual second-place tie (roughly 4.0 rating/11 share for each), according to Nielsen Media Research.
None has a shot at catching NBC, though, as the Peacock (4.7/13) enjoys a surprisingly comfy advantage -- and will pad its averages when reality hit "Fear Factor" becomes a regular in January and the Winter Olympics skates circles around its competish in February. Net also has primetime's No. 1 series in the resurgent "Friends."
The close battle for runner-up reps the most competitive position in years for usual demo laggard CBS, but a disappointing standing for both ABC and Fox.
The Eye, whose "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation" has moved ahead of "ER" to become primetime's most-watched drama, is the only major network to show year-to-year gains in the demo -- up about 10% while NBC is down slightly. Net is also a strong second to NBC in adults 25-54 and is the leader in total viewers after capturing the final eight weeks of the calendar year.
Fox, seen by many as a rising star that could put an end to NBC's demo dominance, has been merely mediocre. Despite a big World Series and a strong start for new laffer "Bernie Mac," net is running about 10% behind last year.
ABC, meanwhile, continues to reel with a lineup of fading vets and too few hot newcomers. And while football and movies have helped keep it competitive with Fox and CBS among viewers under 50, this is the net that most needs something to click in a hurry.
(Next week, Variety begins its annual state-of-the-networks series, "Midseason Checkup," a more detailed analysis of each net's strengths and weaknesses.)
Meanwhile, the attempt by every web to appeal to the advertiser-preferred age range of 18-54 has led to more accelerated dropoffs in categories that fall outside this bracket, according to Nielsen.
While overall viewing for the six broadcast nets is down year-to-year by 4% in adults 18-49, there are steeper declines among kids (down 13%), teens (down 11%) and adults 55-plus (down 8%).
The loss among teens is perhaps most unsettling, as this group has seen the sharpest dropoff for several years now -- with the six nets collectively now commanding less than half of the teen audience. In two years, the broadcasters' share of the Clearasil set has dropped from 62 to 49.
CBS and UPN have both added teens this season, but not enough to compensate for the double-digit percentage drops at ABC, Fox, NBC and the WB.
Another result of the networks targeting similar viewers -- with older-skewing CBS losing some gray hairs and older-skewing Fox adding some -- is that their median ages are closer than ever.
Fox remains easily the youngest net at 36.1 years (up from 34.6 last year), with CBS the oldest (51.4 years, down from 52.0).
ABC (45.1, down from 47.1) and NBC (46.1, up from 45.1) are still bunched together in the middle, although the Alphabet is now the younger of the two -- after replacing two hours of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" with shows like "Alias" and "According to Jim."
