Eye, NBC plot Thursday war
Reality hit to square off against 'Friends'
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With the sequel to last summer's CBS reality phenom arriving later this month -- and several other high-profile midseason newcomers also ready to launch -- network television execs are bracing for what promises to be a wild winter of shifting schedules and fluid Nielsen fortunes.
Midseason has always been a crucial period for networks, particularly in recent years as webs have started rolling out some of their most promising development away from the rush of fall premieres.
But the Eye's gutsy decision to sked "Survivor: The Australian Outback" Thursdays at 8 p.m. opposite NBC's still-mighty "Friends" means things should be even more interesting this year.
If producer Mark Burnett's latest real-life drama manages to achieve anywhere near the success enjoyed by its predecessor, the result could be nothing less than a new network ratings order.
"It has the potential to change the game," one veteran network numbers-cruncher said.
It's happened before: Fox helped establish itself as a legit web 10 years ago by putting fledgling hit "The Simpsons" up against another NBC 8 p.m. Thursday hit, "The Cosby Show."
While NBC's "Must-See" comedy block won't crumble overnight in the face of new competish, Thursdays could be weakened enough to cause the Peacock some serious pain.
Battle for No. 1
The way many ratings analysts see it, "Friends" and "Survivor" will battle it out for first place among viewers in the key demo group of adults 18-49.
At 8:30 p.m., "Survivor" should have no problem beating NBC's weak frosh laffer "The Weber Show" (though some Eye insiders believe NBC will replace "Weber" with repeats of "Friends" or "Frasier" during the first six to eight weeks of "Survivor's" run).
CBS has yet to say what it'll air from 9-11 p.m. Thursdays, so for now, it's assumed NBC will continue to win the rest of the night -- though perhaps by a smaller margin than in the past. If the Eye moves frosh hit "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation" to 9 p.m. Thursday, which is a possibility, all bets are off.
The problem for NBC is that the network's huge lead Thursday has for years helped mask deficiencies elsewhere on its sked. Serious erosion on the Peacock's prize night could put a dent (or altogether erase) the net's winning margin in key demos.
Win-win for Eye
As for CBS, the Eye will no doubt improve its lot with "Survivor." Thursdays have been a disaster this year, and even if the net fails to find the right programming to capitalize on the "Survivor" lead-in, it still comes out ahead.
Ironically, though, CBS might not be the biggest winner from the decision to place "Survivor" on Thursdays. A weakened NBC is also good news for Fox and ABC, the nets closest to NBC in the race for demo supremacy.
In fact, some observers think there's a chance NBC's current first-place standing among adults 18-49 could disappear as a result of the "Survivor" scheduling.
"If CBS takes NBC down a bit, ABC or Fox could slip in" and challenge NBC's demo leadership, one wag predicted.
By contrast, until CBS reveals its plans for 9-11 p.m. Thursday, some industry insiders believe the Eye's overall ratings gains from "Survivor" will be limited.
The argument goes like this: Even if the show scores huge Nielsen numbers for an hour on Thursdays, CBS doesn't have a lot of other shows on the bench that might appeal to the young adult aud that tuned in for "Survivor" last summer.
What's more, "Survivor" is a once-a-week, limited run phenom. It can't be used three or four times a week like "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire."
Nonetheless, the impact of "Survivor" will be felt elsewhere in primetime, as rival webs once again prepare to send in the clones.
Just as the success of "Millionaire" spawned a slew of knock-off quizzers last winter, the next few months will see the introduction of several heightened-reality copycats.
"Mole" to roll
Next week, ABC premieres "The Mole," a nine-week Tuesday skein in which a gang of 10 adventurous souls try to discover the identity of the ringer among them while completing a series of outrageous missions.
Fox gets into the act on the next night with Wednesday's "Temptation Island," a sort of "Survivor" meets Club Med where horny twentysomething couples are invited to cheat on their partners.
As always, the networks will also use January to test some new programs or to fix some of the problems created by the failure of various scheduling moves made in the fall.
However, the season's late start date -- and the desire to rush in the "Survivor" clones -- will translate into fewer scripted entertainment shows being launched this month.
Indeed, no new dramas and only three new laffers are slated to bow in January: NBC's femmefest "Three Sisters," Fox's "Grounded for Life" and UPN's offbeat claymation buddy skein "Gary & Mike."
The real flood of new scripted entertainment offerings will instead take place in March and early April.
Look for shows from big-name producers like David Milch (CBS' "Big Apple") and Chris Carter (Fox's "The Lone Gunmen"), as well as familiar faces like Damon Wayans (ABC's "My Wife and Kids").
If, as expected, the "Survivor" factor helps tighten the race for demo supremacy, one of those midseason contenders could end up determining the season's ultimate winner.
