January pix in space race
Most action coming during King Jr. holiday weekend
Holdovers from the Christmas rush plus massive TV auds for the Super Bowl tend to keep grosses for new releases low. Last January, the total for all new releases was $50.2 million -- less than 1% of the full year's B.O. tally.
Watch out for the 2001 edition, however. Packed with intriguing battles, this January is such a departure from tradition that many distribution execs are biting their nails as the new year begins.
There will be no fewer than 12 wide releases (including brand-new pics and limited ones going wide), plus significant expansions of "Before Night Falls," "State and Main" and "The Gift."
Most of the action will be concentrated on Jan. 12, the four-day Martin Luther King Jr. holiday frame that comes unusually early this year. Debuts that weekend include "Double Take," "Antitrust" and "Save the Last Dance." Widening out are "Thirteen Days" and "Finding Forrester"; expanding are "Before Night Falls" and "O Brother, Where Art Thou?"
The Jan. 19 frame will see Miramax's "Chocolat" and Sony's "Snatch" widen. Lions Gate's "Shadow of the Vampire" goes wide a week later.
Contrast this flurry with January 2000, when theater marquees were saddled with such dreadful titles as "Supernova," "Isn't She Great?" and "Eye of the Beholder." During the entire month, there was only one decent hit, New Line's "Next Friday," and a couple of widening Oscar candidates, "The Hurricane" and "Girl, Interrupted."
This time around, the open Academy Awards race and the durability of December hits "Cast Away" and "What Women Want" have combined to make January screens ultra-scarce.
Screen scramble
Many distribs -- especially Oscar-hungry ones in the specialty arena -- saw the crunch coming and wisely adapted. They are well aware how tough it is to drum up buzz and good grosses in second-class theaters. In the pivotal New York City market, a subway stop's distance between theaters can mean the difference between a sleeper and a slipper.
Sony Classics, an outfit with a proven track record in the limited-release game, worked hard to secure prime screens for its specialty hit "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon."
Months ago, the company's top execs visited several U.S. cities to screen the film for exhibs in hopes of currying advanced favor.
The pic's rollout thus far has been a success. But another Oscar contender from Sony Classics, "Pollock," has a far different release pattern, in large part because of the January jam.
The Jackson Pollock biopic toplining Ed Harris would not have been likely to secure good screens during the peak of the award frenzy. It therefore had a one-week qualifying run in mid-December and won't resurface until Feb. 16 -- three days after Oscar noms are announced.
Putative award pics "A Map of the World" and "Simpatico" had similar profiles in 1999-2000 and promptly sank without a trace.
'Traffic' jam
Despite boasting a stellar cast and a name director in Steven Soderbergh, USA Films' "Traffic" also faced hurdles in jockeying for January screens. The company wound up picking Jan. 5 for the wide release, about 10 days after a four-screen New York-L.A. launch. It originally had skedded the pic for Jan. 12.
On the weekend that it goes wide, "Traffic" will be the only film opening or expanding, which is the good news for USA. Looming commercial risks for the critically acclaimed pic, however, are diminished by proximity to Tom Hanks' "Cast Away" as well as to the five-film flood on Jan. 12.
Friendly nudge
Major studios have long been able to call in favors from exhibs at this time of year.
When booking "Cast Away" and "What Women Want," for example, Fox and Paramount surely reminded exhibs that they'll have the likes of "Doctor Dolittle 2" and "Tomb Raider" coming this summer.
Smaller distribs can't make the same promises. All they can do is read the scheduling tea leaves and hope the first month of the year isn't the only month their film is visible.
