VISIT ACADEMY CENTRALWhen fortune shines on a studio and its film gets nominated for a key Oscar, it's supposed to mean easy money, right?
Not quite. With this year's nominees, especially those for best picture, the so-called Oscar bounce looks to be springiest for "American Beauty" and "The Cider House Rules," which held the Nos. 9 and 10 spots on the weekend B.O. chart, with $4.7 million and $4.1 million, respectively. But "The Insider" appears destined to remain a commercial outsider, averaging a skimpy $745 a screen.
The extent of a best picture nominee's Oscar boost ranges widely, B.O. watchers say.
Some win; some lose
"It's pretty typical that one or two of the films just didn't have much spark, and then one or two really catch on," said Dan Marks, veep at ACNielsen EDI. "You have some that win and some that lose."
Witness last year's Oscar fallout. "Shakespeare in Love" and "Life Is Beautiful" grew long, profitable legs for Miramax after best-picture noms, while Fox's "The Thin Red Line" and Gramercy's "Elizabeth" all but disappeared.
This year, DreamWorks' "American Beauty" and Miramax's "The Cider House Rules" are sharing the commercial driver's seat. They've cashed in more than any other multi-nominated pics, posting similar grosses on a similar number of screens.
"Beauty," which added nearly 40 theaters for a total of 1,323, raised its cume to $87.7 million.
Over $100 mil rainbow
DreamWorks distrib guru Jim Tharp says the drama, which led all pics with eight Oscar noms, has a decent shot at $100 million before the March 26 ceremony. After that, the number of wins will determine how far north of that plateau it can travel.
"It's holding up quite well," he said, pointing out that pic's 15% drop was the slimmest of any wide release. "We definitely have the flexibility to go a little wider with it as we get closer to the Oscars."
Once dismissed as the capper to Miramax's forgettable 1999, "Cider" has gained new vitality after getting a surprising seven noms. It added about 500 screens over the weekend, putting it on 1,346. Its $4.1 million take was a 45% gain over last weekend, which had an abnormally juiced Sunday number due to Presidents Day.
At the other end of the spectrum is Disney's "The Insider." Despite boosting its screen count to 651 from 132, it mustered a slim $484,769 payday, or just $745 per location.
'Insider' slides
Michael Mann's drama copped seven noms, tying for second behind "Beauty," yet it has pulled in just $27.5 million since a November bow. Only a bevy of surprise wins will likely revive the pic.
Somewhere in the middle of the Oscar crop are Warner Bros.' "The Green Mile" and Disney's "The Sixth Sense."
"Mile" entered its 12th week on 1,746 screens and totaled $2 million for the weekend. Cume of $131.2 has surprised everyone except Warners distrib chief Dan Fellman.
"It's looking like the biggest Christmas release," he said, noting Sony's $135 million-grossing December rival "Stuart Little" will likely have a steeper dropoff.
"Sense," the No. 11 all-time domestic release, doesn't figure to add too much more, in relative percentage terms, to its $600 million worldwide tally. It collected $1.6 million over the weekend, off just 19%, to bring its cume to an even $284 million.
Where's the juice?
Two pics with noteworthy acting noms haven't gotten much of an Oscar jolt. Universal's "The Hurricane," whose lone nod went to Denzel Washington, plummeted 45% in its ninth weekend, taking in $1.3 million. Cume is $48.2 million, but U insiders say even a Washington win doesn't figure to boost the cume past $60 million.
Fox Searchlight's "Boys Don't Cry" has enjoyed a five-month run but grim subject matter has prevented a release wider than its current 120 sites. Receipts fell 31% to about $350,000, bringing cume to $4.9 million. That's a respectable tally but thus far a wash for Fox given sizable marketing costs.
"I don't think people look at just one nomination in one category as a reason to see a movie," Marks said. "They tend to look more at best picture or the overall number of nominations."
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