Survival of the boldest

By BRUCE HARING

The face of radio will change more in the next two years than it has in the last 10, according to Pollack Media Group chairman/CEO Jeff Pollack in the keynote speech yesterday to his 10th annual radio industry convention, which runs through Saturday at the J.W. Marriott Hotel in Century City.

Pollack called on his audience to take bold steps to remain competitive in the increasingly fragmented world of radio, and predicted dozens of new formats would spring up in the next year.

'Under siege'

In a wide-ranging speech that examined each radio format, Pollack said mainstream contemporary formats were "under siege" and predicted that many of the stations would disappear without the help of a great morning show, the time period that generates the most revenue for stations.

Alternative format

Pollack predicted that an alternative music format would replace the current contemporary hit radio, or CHR, as the new Top 40 in major markets.

Among Pollack's other observations:

o 1993 will see a proliferation of stations like Los Angeles outlet KLAX, a Spanish-language station that came out of nowhere recently to top the market, in cities with a large Latino population.

o The coming year will also see the likely emergence of such formats as children's 24-hour stations, FM news, FM talk and all-comedy formats.

o The predicted rise of stations that would follow the "star format," similar to L.A,'s Star 98.7, which generally consists of a mix of '80s and '90s pop gold.

o Alternative music is not programmed in many cities, leaving a market hole. There is also evidence of broader advertising support for this format than for CHR or some rock formats, making it a ratings and revenue generator.

o Classic rock has taken no risks, therefore exhibits no gains. The saving grace for such stations has been exciting morning personalities like Howard Stern.

o The emergence of rock adult contemporary, which features artists like the Allman Bros., Bonnie Raitt, B.B. King and the Zombies. It's been successful in several markets and should continue to grow.

o Country music has broken through among 12- to 17-year-olds in the last three years, which should keep the format strong well into the next century. The format has two problems: A relative lack of superstars, even among platinum sellers, and crossover airplay creating a lack of exclusivity for the format.

o Los Angeles station KFI was held up as the success story of news and talk radio formats -- aggressive and provocative.