All fare fair play in viewer quest
Earlier this year, cable television appeared headed in that same direction: a niche for every market.
Enter reregulation. Under the new 1992 Cable Act, passed Oct. 5 over President George Bush's veto, the fates of new programming services--recently introduced as well as pending ones--are even more problematical than their already precarious business challenges suggest.
The concern is that application of the new law and its ramifications (the tiering of services) will impede new basic cable programmers from achieving necessary cable system clearances to attract sufficient advertiser support for profitability. (The capability of reaching 30 million cable subscribers is generally considered the break-even point.)
There's also the strong suspicion that in a new tiered environment, where circulation of any one tier is likely to be less than the full circulation of the entire system, even generating a bare minimum penetration (for a national service) of 2-3 million cable households at launch will become increasingly difficult.
The advent of multiplexing, compression and digital greatly enhance cable's potential to strive for the magazine-rack model and handle the introduction of many additional programming services--at least one for virtually every conceivable interest.
Yet some industry observers are cautioning not to anticipate a significant increase in new programming services for the immediate future. They say farewell and fond remembrance to such ambitious launches as that of the Sci-Fi Channel, started in September with a reach of 10 million subscribers and support of more than $ 50 million (from its USA Network owners) for program acquisitions and marketing, especially to establish a brand identity. Introduced only a few weeks later, Turner Broadcasting System's Cartoon Network started much more moderately (reaching 2 million households).
Still, in the face of doomsayers, in the teeth of the uncertainties left in the wake of the new Cable Act, emerging programming services are not unlike the daily flight pattern at LAX. More than 30 of them are stacked up preparing for takeoff.
A few already have taken off this year--Sci-Fi Channel, The Cartoon Network, Showtime's Flix, American Transportation Television Network and two regionals, New England Cable News Channel, New York City News Channel. Others--either or both Game Channel and Game Show Channel, ChicagoLand Television--are moving to the front of the line.
Several launches--Talk TV Network, Golden American Network--have missed one or more takeoff times. Many will have to abort, short on start-up money, clear advertiser support and, most importantly, affiliate clearances.
The multiplexing of existing basic services, such as MTV, ESPN and Nickelodeon, is also in the works. Nickelodeon, for example, has served notice that it will test several different programming services pegged to segments of Nick at Nite and Nick Jr., with the intention of introducing at least one new channel late next year.
Nickelodeon parent MTV Networks also plans to try out spinoff concepts based on MTV: Music Television, with the idea of multiplexing the existing MTV channel into three differently formatted channels.
Back in May, ESPN became the first cable programming to be available in more than 60 million homes.
At that time, only 18 basic cable services, out of nearly 60 services (including pay), had an audience potential of what's considered paydirt--40 million households or more. That threshold may become increasingly difficult to cross--what with the challenges of rate regulation, must-carry and retransmission consent--putting a cap on the maximum potential clearance rate for new services.
Dave Thomas, marketing VP for New Culture Network, knows that his 1994 -targeted service, being positioned as a niche showcase for independent production, will be aimed at a specific group of demographics and thus the audience will be limited. Advertiser support is highly unlikely.
"We will have to charge a fee," he says, suggesting a $ 2-$ 3 mini-pay economic structure for the planned channel.
Similarly, with a lot of new programmers chasing declining and selective advertising budgets, other new programming services may have to rely more on either cable affiliate fees or subscriber support than originally anticipated and less on advertising.
As the examples cited below indicate, cable programming, like magazine publishing, surely (but now probably more slowly) is evolving to the point where it can meet even the most discriminating tastes of its diverse audience, virtually without limit.
The entire gamut of entertainment, sports, news, information and education--every attraction where a magazine has been--should become available to television audiences, once the course beyond the current regulatory turbulence is set.
Among new services in the wings awaiting propitious conditions are:
o Americana Television Network, Branson, Mo. Plans March 1993 start via 10- to 15-hour block of programming on Nostalgia Television. Will offer nostalgia with music, including bluegrass, folk, jazz, blues, country and gospel.
o ATV: Advertising Television, Cedar Grove, N.J. Basic service featuring infomercials.
o ChicagoLand, Chicago. A 24-hour cable news channel on Tele-Communications Inc. and Continental Cablevision systems reaching more than 500,000 Chicago-area subscribers.
o Christian News Network, Clearwater, Fla. Inspirational videos of nature scenes set to inspirational music with call-in telephone lines to allow viewers to seek spiritual guidance through 900 numbers.
o California News Channel, Sacramento. A statewide, all-news channel that Cox Enterprises is looking to introduce some time next year.
o The Cowboy Channel, Austin. Basic service with celebrity hosts introducing Western feature films, series and original productions including shows covering music, lifestyle and ecology.
o The Crime Channel, Sherman Oaks, Calif. Series features documentaries and original productions, all crime-related.
o The Fitness Channel, Atlanta. Programming to consist of news (possibly Headline News), health and fitness features.
o FYI-The Consumer Channel, Washington, D.C. Program-length commercials, celebrity anchored.
o The Game Channel, Virginia Beach, Va. A fully interactive service relying heavily on off-network game shows, mixed with some original production and incorporating a 900 number.
o The Game Show Channel, Los Angeles. Wall-to-wall gameshows with Sony Pictures Entertainment designing the programming and United Video Group providing marketing/technological support.
o Global Village Network, Washington, D.C. International business and lifestyle programming.
o Golden American Network, Beverly Hills. Aimed at the 50-plus market, which was test-marketed in Las Vegas during the summer.
o How-To-Channel, Los Angeles. Features programs on home repair, recreational sports, money, health, cooking, travel, beauty and other how-to subjects.
o McDTV, Atlanta. Another one of the growing number of place-based services, this one featuring family-oriented programming (including news and feature stories, sports, entertainment and original production), to be shown on television monitors at McDonald's chain of fast-food restaurants across the country.
o Musivision, New Orleans. English-language programs featuring Hispanic music entertainment.
o New Culture Network, Silver Spring, Md. Mini-pay service that hopes to offer a showcase for indie American and international feature films, documentaries and shorts, as well as at least one new feature every evening in prime time.
o Newsline, Philadelphia. A 24-hour basic cable channel for zoned local news via the Lenfest Group.
o R&B TV, Atlanta. Entrepreneur Ronnie C. Wright plans to program this channel with rhythm and blues musicvideos, with non-music programming aimed at children.
o Talk TV Network, Phoenix. All-talk channel featuring nationally known guests and interactive viewer call-ins from across the nation.
o Viva Television Network, Los Angeles. Movies, sports, comedy, news, children's shows and music for Hispanic audiences.
o ZTV Music Network, Lake Helen, Fla. Fast-paced musicvideo channel offering pop, rap and rock from contemporary Christian artists.
