Can't stop the music
'Idol' addles rivals as Fox jolts p'time
But "Idol" made like the Austrian ski team, prevailing in all categories and bringing in nearly 30 million viewers. It even gained viewers as the night wore on.
It was a high note for "Idol," now in its fifth season. "The Olympics are an event -- but 'Idol,' because it's only on once a year, has become an event as well," crows Fox alternative programming guru Mike Darnell. "Every day I wake up and thank God that it's ours."
In a media environment focused on the individual, where families watch different shows on different TVs in different rooms, "Idol" is a throwback, one of a dwindling number of hit shows that families actually watch together. In this fractionalized TV universe, it's also one of the few shows that still deserves the "water cooler" label.
After trouncing the Olympics on four occasions and drawing twice the audience of the Grammy Awards, "Idol" has become one of the broadcast events of the year.
Only the Super Bowl, and to a lesser extent the Oscars, consistently best the "Idol" juggernaut. This year's Super Bowl averaged 90.1 million viewers and a huge 34.6 rating and 69 share among adults 18-49 -- making it by far TV's biggest event.
Last year's Academy Awards, meanwhile, chalked up 42.1 million viewers overall, with a 15.1 rating/34 share in the demo (this year's Oscarcast is expected to go lower, however).
"Idol" this year is nipping at Oscar's toes, averaging 32.8 million viewers -- and a 13.9/33 with adults 18-49 Tuesday nights.
"Idol" is generating serious anxiety elsewhere on the dial as well. Its dominance and durability have forced the other networks (and advertisers) to institutionalize what most had hoped would be a short-term compensation for the "Idol Effect."
The January-to-May "Idol" schedule is now so powerful it creates TV's unofficial second season -- on Fox and other webs.
Fox relaunches its entire lineup, bringing back critical faves like "24," which is also off to a stellar start. And rival nets get out of the way, bracing for the worst.
Until "Housewives" and "Lost" brought ABC back from the brink, the Alphabet web would exhibit signs of recovery every fall -- until "Idol" stripped those gains away come January.
This year, the approach of a new "Idol" forced NBC to move its nascent comedy block of "My Name Is Earl" and "The Office" from Tuesday to Thursday night. That move was explained as the attempt to rebuild NBC's "Must-see" Thursday night, but it also conveniently allowed both shows to avoid "Idol's" Tuesday buzz-saw.
"Before we go in and recommend what to buy for our advertisers, we take into account what 'Idol' is going to do," says Initiative Media director of national broadcast Scott Haugenes.
The singing-competition show gives Fox the strongest card going into the network upfront negotiations in May, where more than $9 billion in ad dollars are committed for the coming season. Fox goes into the upfronts with more than 40 hours to sell.
"It reaches the young and old, the cool and uncool, every single demo and type of person out there," Haugenes says.
The format, based on the Brit hit "Pop Idol," has been a hit in more than 30 countries.
And in the U.S., "Idol" has so far bucked the trend of other reality phenoms that have started big and quickly fizzled. (CBS' "Survivor" and "The Amazing Race" have also managed to thrive for more than five years.)
The case study remains ABC's "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire," which became an overnight phenom and rocketed the Alphabet web to No. 1 -- until the net overexploited the show and it fizzled within three years. NBC, meanwhile, saw "The Apprentice" launch big but eventually fade a lesser time frame.
Fox itself learned a lesson from "Joe Millionaire," which was a smash in its first season, but stumbled in year two, and was never heard from again.
"Idol" had several things going for it: Its interactivity, which has become an industry standard; its cross-platforming, via cell phones, Web sites, recordings and concert tours.
But probably most importantly, "Idol" has been helped by Fox's deft scheduling.
Fox has earned accolades for preserving "Idol's" hit status by keeping it a once-a-year event. The new season of "Apprentice" will show how much damage NBC did to the franchise by following the opposite strategy.
"Idol" has also benefited from yearly tweaks to the show's format. This year, for example, the audition episodes were peppered with comments afterward by judges Simon Cowell, Paula Abdul and Randy Jackson.
"They're nuanced changes -- but when a show this big makes little changes, they feel big," Darnell says. "There is no apathy on this show. Every year, the producers have added something."
Heading into winter, as the networks faced down another season of "Idol," the talk was about the possible end of its stellar run. "Idol" buzz was at a minimum, talk had turned to the re-emerging success of scripted fare like "Grey's Anatomy" -- and even original "Idol" winner Kelly Clarkson seemed to be distancing herself from the show that made her a star.
What's more, some experts thought the Olympics might put some ice in "Idol's" path, helping finally cool the hot reality format. (At least, that scenario played out in the dreams of Jeff Zucker, Leslie Moonves and Steve McPherson.)
"Against the Olympics, we did expect to go down a little," says Nigel Lythgoe, president of 19 Television and exec producer of "American Idol." "I've been in TV a long time, and you always think you're going to take a hit."
But it didn't happen.
Instead, over the past two weeks, "Idol" producers beat NBC Sports czar Dick Ebersol at his own game: developing compelling backstories about relative unknowns, and then selling the storylines to an American public looking for reasons to care.
The "Idol" train also demolished the Grammy Awards -- which, ironically, had returned to Wednesdays because its Sunday numbers were so blah.
"I gave up trying to predict after the second season," says Mediaedge:CIA media planner John Doyle, who hit the jackpot when he placed AT&T Wireless, now Cingular, as one of three main sponsors of the show five years ago. "I don't grasp it, I don't fully understand it, but I'm going along for the ride."
None are more flabbergasted than the Fox execs themselves, all too aware of the temporal nature of a hit in today's fractured TV environment.
It's become routine: Fox execs sit through the fall, usually in fourth place, uneasy about the coming January launch of "Idol." Is this the year "Idol" finally takes a hit? Could it actually grow any bigger?
So far, the answers have been no, and yes.
Two years ago, then-Fox Entertainment prexy Gail Berman predicted "Idol's" fourth season would take a minor 10% dip -- instead, it went up another 4%.
This year, a day before "Idol's" fifth season launched, new entertainment topper Peter Ligouri quipped, "I should probably say it may go down 20% in the hopes that it goes up eight."
Liguori underestimated the show's returning power; it's up 12%.
"We always feel like it can't grow anymore," Darnell says. "But there's still a vast audience that doesn't watch it regularly. My guess is people who have been holding out or reluctant to tune in finally are. Every year, more people feel obligated to watch -- and once they watch, they're hooked."
That's music to the ears of Fox sales prexy Jon Nesvig, whose team is benefiting from Fox airing so many hours of "Idol." Media buyers are smartly directing their clients to the show, which they say boasts one of the best bargains in town (due to the show's sheer volume of ad inventory).
"We certainly hoped it would hold up, but to have a fifth-year show have this kind of growth; this is more than our most optimistic outlook," Nesvig says.
The challenge for Fox, is to build on this unprecedented programming platform and expose and create hits that can be spawned from it.
"Idol" can easily mask problems elsewhere on the net's sked, such as Fox's difficulties on Thursdays and Fridays. The show also has had mixed success in as a hitmaker -- turning "House" and "24" into mega-players, while not giving a huge boost to "The O.C."
The success of "Idol," as well as the launch of scripted faves like "Lost," has given net execs an appetite for more "event"-style programming. Webheads are looking for highly promotable programs that can provide quick ratings bursts.
"Idol" also begot several clones early in its run (NBC's "Fame," CBS' revival of "Star Search"), as well as a host of other competition shows. ABC's "Dancing With the Stars," for example, would have never been made in a pre-"Idol" world.
Soon, "Idol" will have to face down a new crop of clones inspired by the show's continuing strength, everything from a take on the Eurovision song contest at NBC, to a version of U.K. hit "Fame Academy" at ABC.
The rivals concern Lythgoe, but they don't keep him up at night.
"Anything that drinks from the same pool is going to deplete the water some," he says. "But while the talent remains as good as it is, I think we'll keep our audience."
Still, it's hard to find much negative for Fox in the "Idol" phenom.
Darnell even revels in the controversies that hit the show each year, such as discoveries that several singers have police records or last year's allegations that Abdul forged a sexual relationship with a contestant. They all just fuel the show's iconic status in popular culture, he says.
"Idol" has made unlikely superstars of all of its talent. That includes host Ryan Seacrest, previously a Los Angeles radio DJ, who now not only hosts a high-rated morning show on KIIS-FM, but also boasts a lucrative contract with E!, Casey Kasem's old gig as "American Top 40" host and is being groomed to take over Dick Clark's role as host of "New Year's Rockin' Eve."
Seacrest was so confident "Idol" would kill the Olympics on Feb. 21 night, he even showboated about it.
"Anyone worried about missing the Olympics, don't worry, we've got it covered," he deadpanned on air. "Randy has borrowed a can of baby oil and is going to luge across the set at the end of the show!"
