Studio chiefs wince at summer faceoff

The production chief of a movie studio used to get the best of everything. Thalberg got the plaudits. Jack Warner got the glory. Bob Evans got the girls.

But consider the outlook for studio chiefs in summer '06: The most expensive sequels and franchise movies in history are colliding on successive weekends from May through July.

Hence, though everyone (including the studio chiefs) acknowledges that the business model is broken, the movies of summer '06 have to produce record numbers or heads will roll. Last summer the insiders could complain that movie attendance was sagging. No excuses this year.

No wonder the most common syndrome in town is performance anxiety. Or that savvy veterans like Stacey Snider are voluntarily heading for the exit.

To be sure, the product lined up on the runway bespeaks glitz and glamour. So much so that the clashes on several weekends will be downright Darwinian. "Mission: Impossible 3" gets little breathing room before "Poseidon" floats by, to be imminently followed by "The Da Vinci Code," "Over the Hedge" from DreamWorks and then Fox's "X-Men 3." The July 4 melee begins with "Superman Returns" and ends with "Pirates of the Caribbean II." And so it goes all summer.

Rolling out the comedies is no laugh either. On June 2 Paramount's "Nacho Libre" bumps into Universal's "The Break-Up" with Vince Vaughn, and "Cars" is speeding up their driveway.

Some high-profile casualties inevitably will result from this combat -- the production chiefs fully understand this. Given the extraordinary costs ($150 million and up) of summer blockbusters, they know that a major flameout will impinge on the bottom line of their parent companies. They also comprehend the implications of the "Kong" conundrum: Rich talent deals have triggered big paydays for the talent, leaving only distribution fees for the studios.

As a result, several studio regimes know they're on tenuous ground. This is a make-or-break year, which means May-through-July will be the summer from hell.

Every studio has reason for both fear and hubris. In 2005, Sony knew "Geisha" was an expensive gamble (after Spielberg walked away), but believes "The Da Vinci Code" to be a pre-sold winner. Warner Bros. realizes "Poseidon," at somewhere north of $150 million, could potentially capsize, but is confident the even-pricier "Superman" is a slam dunk. Disney knows it's been napping for a couple of years, but believes there will be lines around the block for the mega-budget "Pirates II."

So here's the paradox of summer '06: While the studios fully acknowledge they're making too many films -- and too many expensive films -- the number of these movies going head-to-head this summer will reach record proportions. Though everyone concedes costs have gone through the roof, the roof will be raised once again.

The big question, therefore, is whether summer '06 will represent a validation of Hollywood's modus operandi, or its ultimate refutation? If the latter proves true, the body count among executives could be formidable.

That's why most studio chiefs keep their resumes at the ready. Though Thalberg, Warner and, yes, Bob Evans, had a damn good run at the top, those days are long gone. Flashing that green light used to be downright exhilarating. Funny, but green isn't anyone's favorite color at the studio anymore.